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New coronavirus may be much more contagious than initially thought
A deadly new coronavirus has now reached at least 13 countries. As of Monday 27 January, there are 2794 confirmed cases of the virus, while tens of thousands of people are being kept under medical supervision around the world. Eighty-one people have died with the virus, according to latest reports.
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More deaths are predicted to follow. The virus can spread before symptoms show, China’s health minister Ma Xiaowei said on Sunday, which means it will be more difficult to limit transmission between people.
There are confirmed cases of the virus across Asia, and in the US, Australia and Europe. So far, all cases outside China seem to be in people who have travelled from Hubei province, where the outbreak began, or the surrounding area. But we are likely to find out if the virus will start spreading in these countries in the coming days and weeks.
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The virus is spreading more quickly than SARS. “SARS took several months to cause a thousand cases,” says Thompson. “This has caused [almost] 3000 cases in three weeks.”
The SARS outbreak was over by 2004 – there have been no reported cases since then. Health agencies brought the virus under control by isolating people with the virus, and screening air travel passengers. Such measures will be more difficult with a virus that can be spread before symptoms appear.
There is also always a chance that the virus could mutate to become more contagious or deadly. However, there is no evidence yet that the virus has mutated within people, and the World Health Organization (WHO) told a press conference last week that the virus appears to be stable.
So, how worried should we be? The WHO is still holding off from declaring a public health emergency of international concern, although the organisation says the risk of the virus is “very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level”.
The CDC describes the outbreak as a “very serious public health threat”. “I am pretty worried about the current situation,” says Thompson. He expects the WHO to officially declare a public health emergency if and when the virus begins to spread between people outside China. “I’m definitely nervous about it,” he says.
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